Republished from USA Today.
http://blogs.usatoday.com/maney
Bill G and the $100 laptop problem
So I'm sitting with Bill Gates at dinner and he says ...
Actually, I've often wanted to start a barroom conversation that way but feared
sounding like Commander McBragg. "Dear chap, did I ever
tell you about the time I used a tablet PC to stop a charging
rhino just before it gored Bill Gates and
ruined our conversation about global philanthropy?"
Anyway, I really was with Gates at a dinner recently, and I brought up the
topic of Nicholas Negroponte's project - One Laptop Per Child. Negroponte, who founded the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology Media Lab, wants to make $100 laptops for the poor in
developing countries. Gates, with as much respect as he ever musters
for something he thinks is dumb, said it was a really bad idea. He
says it would be more effective to disseminate Internet-enabled
cellphones to those regions.
I'd report Gates' exact words, except I wasn't taking notes
because we were at a Morton's steakhouse eating pieces of beef the
size of car tires.
But last week, the Microsoft chairman repeated his argument at
the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland - where the United
Nations endorsed Negroponte's project.
On the face of it, Gates seems to be taking his position only
because that darn $100 laptop doesn't run on Microsoft's Windows
operating system. Negroponte chose a free Linux-based operating
system - and then gored Microsoft by reportedly saying he picked it
not because it's free, but because it's better.
Worse for Microsoft, if tens of millions of Negroponte's
Microsoft-free laptops spread through the Third World, that kind of
product base would lure developers to create more software for the
machines. Major manufacturers such as Sony or Dell might decide to
make better, competing supercheap non-Windows laptops. Soon, people
in the USA, Europe or Japan could be buying versions of Negroponte's
laptop - maybe ones that cost $200 and have a few more features but
still contain no Microsoft software.
Negroponte never intended to start a Microsoft competitor - he
just wanted to help get computers and the Internet to the world's
poor. But spin out the tale of the $100 laptop in a certain way, and
you wind up with Negroponte bringing Microsoft to its knees.
So why wouldn't Gates fight back?
Unless that is not what is happening.
Five years ago, Gates probably would have been thinking only of
Microsoft in any debate about a $100 laptop. But these days, perhaps
he is proposing his ideas for more elevated reasons.
I asked Gates about the $100 laptop because, up until then, the
dinner conversation had been about his philanthropic work in the
developing world - which landed him, along with his wife, Melinda,
and U2 singer Bono - on the cover of Time as Persons of the Year. The
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation has spent $9.3 billion on health care
initiatives and other causes in the past six years. Gates has
traveled to places such as India and Africa repeatedly. He has proved
passionate and knowledgeable about helping the remote, isolated poor.
Cellphones are cheap, use little power and are already made by
dozens of companies. A single cell tower could connect a whole town.
Cellphones have Web browsers and text messaging and e-mail - and are
stable, tested technology. They're spreading quickly in a lot of the
developing world.
So, to paraphrase Gates, why start from scratch? Why rely on a
product that's never been mass-produced and could have more bugs than
a rain forest? If the U.N. and governments of nations such as Egypt
and Nigeria want to get technology into poor villagers' hands
quickly, why not focus on cellphones?
It's a commendable point.
So here's a challenge to Gates: Do it.
Negroponte has momentum because he has executed on what seemed
like an audacious plan. He got big-name backers early on, especially
Google, AMD and - as of Tuesday - software company Red Hat. Also on
board is Gates' cohort from the Time cover, Bono. Negroponte told me
a year ago, "This is the first project in my life where I've never
had to worry about money."
He started with an improbable concept and now has a prototype.
Quanta Computer of Taiwan - a contract manufacturer that makes about
one-third of all laptops sold - has signed on to make the $100
laptops. And, most recently, Negroponte got the U.N.'s support.
Gates says that laptops aren't going to do much for the poor if
they can't get on the Internet and that most of the poorest regions
don't have Internet connections. But there might be answers to that,
too - with Wi-Fi and microwave or satellite connections. Lockheed
Martin is working on geostationary blimps that could act as a
wireless Internet tower serving a large area.
Negroponte is off and running, while Gates so far is mostly
conceptualizing. But I'm willing to give Gates the benefit of the
doubt. I want to believe he really wants to solve these big problems
- and that his next move will be to dive full-throttle into making
his competing cellphone proposition real.
The outcome could only be good - to have two forces like
Negroponte and Gates in an arms race to produce technology that could
transform the lives of hundreds of millions of the world's poorest
people.
Some experts worry that Gates is maneuvering to make sure
Negroponte's project gets hung up in industry politics. That would be
horrible and counter to Gates' philanthropic ambitions. Here's to
hoping -- no, having faith -- that he fights this battle in a way
worthy of a Person of the Year.
Kevin Maney